Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia

Abstract

"This paper evaluates real exchange rate misalignment patterns, based on Markov-Switching methodology. Two dominant states of nature are found: "equilibrium" and "over-valuation ". Speculative attack and current account distortion indices are constructed, and we find that these are generally found during or shortly alter over-revaluation. We conclude that the concept and disequilibrium measurement have clear normative implications for Colombia, given that periods of over-revaluation are associated with, among others, speculative attacks, low levels of economic growth, and high unemployment."