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    Interactions between public debt management and debt dynamics and sustainability: theory and application to Colombia

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    Date

    2003-11

    Author

    Arbeláez, María A.
    Roubini, Nouriel
    Guerra, María L.

    Notas

    Estudio realizado para la Misión de Ingreso Público

    URI

    http://hdl.handle.net/11445/3285

    Citation

    Arbeláez, M. A.; Roubini, N. and Guerra, M. L. (2003). Interactions between public debt management and debt dynamics and sustainability: theory and application to Colombia. Bogotá: Fedesarrollo, noviembre. Estudio para la Misión del Ingreso Público.
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    Subtítulo

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    Abstract

    "In this paper we present an analysis of optimal public debt management and its interaction with debt sustainability, and apply it to Colombia. Optimal public debt management, a difficult and complex issue for emerging market economies, grows more challenging when a country has a large, increasing, and possibly unsustainable debt path that requires a major primary fiscal adjustment to restore debt sustainability. We survey the analytical literature on optimal public debt management and debt sustainability and financeability and emphasize the aspects that are more relevant for emerging markets with limited economic policy credibility. We then apply the analysis to the case of Colombia. This part first discusses the sustainability of the debt dynamics of the country and provides a primary gap analysis under various scenarios about the fiscal adjustment of the country. Then it provides an overview of the public debt structure and its management in the last decade, considers value at risk scenarios and stress tests for the current structure of the public debt (domestic and external). Finally, it analyzes the issue of optimal debt management by considering a VaR and Debt-at-Risk approach; describing and discussing the reference model used by the policy authorities; and analyzing the challenges faced in the management of the Colombian public debt in the next few years within a context of partial or severe domestic and international market access limitations. Over the next few years the authorities will face a very delicate task of managing the country debt under conditions of limited domestic market access, limited policy credibility, some economic and political/security uncertainty and unfavorable international financial and real market conditions. A sound management of the public debt by type, maturity and currency composition will be essential for the achievement of financial and debt stability."

    Palabras clave

    Deuda Pública
    Gastos Públicos
    Ingresos Públicos
    Misión del Ingreso Público
    Política Fiscal
    Administración Fiscal
    Tributación
    Colombia

    Keywords

    Public Debt
    Public Expenditure
    Public Revenues
    Fiscal Policy

    JEL

    H50
    H63
    H20
    E62
    Collections
    • Macroeconomía, Política Monetaria y Fiscal [176]

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    La Fundación para la Educación Superior y el Desarrollo (Fedesarrollo) es una entidad privada sin ánimo de lucro. Establecida en 1970, se dedica a la investigación en temas de política económica y social.

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    Acerca de Fedesarrollo

    La Fundación para la Educación Superior y el Desarrollo (Fedesarrollo) es una entidad privada sin ánimo de lucro. Establecida en 1970, se dedica a la investigación en temas de política económica y social.

    Fedesarrollo

    Calle 78 Nº 9 -91, Bogotá - Colombia
    Tel (571) 325 9777, Fax (571) 325 9770
    https://www.fedesarrollo.org.co
    © 2017, Todos los derechos reservados

    Redes Sociales