Tendencia Económica No. 217

Abstract

Editorial: On April 28, 2021, a series of protests began in Colombia that led to the cessation of productive activities, the disruption of public order and road blockades for the transport of goods and supplies to the interior of the country. After more than a month of protests, the economic indicators of different productive sectors have shown a significant deterioration and the price level of the economy has had upward pressure. This Editorial seeks to estimate the economic cost that the national strike had in May, considering the fall in economic activity that was recorded in the truckers strike in 2016. Additionally, high-frequency indicators are used, such as the level of supply in the main wholesale centers and the demand for unregulated energy to achieve a magnitude of the impact that the current protests would have on economic activity. The results indicate that the cost of the national strike in the month of May would range between 4.8 and 6.1 trillion pesos, where the most affected economic activities would be commerce, industry and agriculture.

Actualidad: In 2013, the announcement of the Federal Reserve of the reduction in the purchases of government bonds and financial assets, which is a Tapering, represented a massive negative shock to investor expectations, generating negative financing conditions for the emerging economies. Recently, the new purchasing program aimed to maintain stability during the COVID-19 crisis, might end in a similar way as in 2013. This article analyses the consequences of the tapering happened 8 years earlier and the possible effects that would have for the emergent economies giving the actual macroeconomic context.