Automation of the labor force and informality with focus on the Colombian case

Abstract

This study explores the potential impact of automation on jobs in Colombia, with a specific focus on the informal economy. To do this, we apply Frey and Osborne (2017) and IADB (2019) automation probabilities and Mihaylov and Tijdens (2019) routine task intensities to the Colombian context. We estimate that machines could replace around 57% of Colombian jobs within the next 10 to 20 years. We find that the percentage of high-risk occupations for informal workers is slightly higher than for formal workers, but the risk is slightly lower for workers in informal firms compared to those in formal firms. The results also highlight divergent findings depending on the methodology used, with some indicating that informal workers hold more automatable jobs, while others suggest the opposite. Younger workers and women are identified as groups facing a higher risk of automation, emphasizing the need for targeted attention to these demographics in the future.