Encuesta de Opinión Empresarial. Resultados junio de 2024

Abstract

In June 2024, the Retail Confidence Index (RCI) stood at 8.6%, representing a decrease of 3.9 percentage points (pps) compared to the previous month (RCI May 2024: 12.5%). The decline in retail confidence was driven by a 5.7 pps reduction in expectations for the economic situation over the next semester, a 3.4 pps decrease in perceptions of the current economic situation, and a 2.8 pps increase in stock levels. Compared to the same month last year, the RCI decreased by 9.2 pps (RCI June 2023: 17.8%).

Meanwhile, the Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) stood at -3.1% for June 2024, showing an increase of 2.3 pps compared to the previous month (ICI May 2024: -5.4%). The positive monthly variation in industrial confidence in June was driven by a 6.1 pps increase in production expectations for the next quarter and a 2.8 pps decrease in stock levels. However, the current volume of orders experienced a 1.9 pps decrease compared to the previous month. Compared to June 2023, the ICI decreased by 0.9 pps (ICI June 2023: -2.2%).

The expectations for job creation in the industrial sector for the next quarter increased by 0.7 pps compared to the January-March quarter (1.0% in June 2024 vs 0.3% in March 2024) and rose by 2.7 pps compared to the same quarter of the previous year (-1.7%). On the other hand, industrialists' perception of the presence of smuggling activities stood at 5.3%, marking an increase of 11.0 pps compared to the previous quarter (-5.7%) and a rise of 10.0 pps compared to the same quarter analyzed in 2023 (-4.7%).